Brewers Betting That Jackson Chourio Lives Up To Expectations

The Milwaukee Brewers made it official this morning: The team closed a long-term contract with prospect Jackson Chourio. The deal buys out three or four years of arbitration, and all but insures that Chourio will break camp with the Brewers and begin the 2024 season with the big league team.

As reported by Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal, and Jeff Passan, Chourio’s deal is for 8 years and $82.5 million, with two $25 million options, and a $2 million buyout. In addition, the deal has escalators based on MVP votes that can push the contract beyond $142 million. This is the largest contract ever given to a player before he makes his Major League debut.

Rumors of this deal had been in the ether for quite some time, and the Brewers were anxious to get it done. Now the question becomes: will they regret it. Here is a breakdown of the previous contracts signed before a player ever played in a big league game:

Jon Singleton

In 2014, the ever-frugal and analytically-minded Houston Astros signed first base prospect Jon Singleton to a 5 year/$10 million contract. He played his first game that year on June 3^rd, went 1-for-3, and thus hit the high-point of his career. Singleton played 95 games in 2014, slashing .168/.285/.335, with a 76 OPS+. In 2015, he played 19 games and hit 1 home run. Repeated positive drug tests led to the Astros releasing Singleton in 2018, before the five-year term was complete.

A happy postscript to this story is that Singleton got back into baseball in 2023 with the Brewers. Milwaukee released him after he went 3-for-29 in eleven games; but then the Houston re-signed him. He rewarded the Astros by singling in his first at bat, and then hitting two homers in his third game. Singleton even made the Astros’ post-season roster for the ALCS, going hitless in two plate appearances.

In all, Houston paid Singleton $10M for a total of -1.0 of bWAR. Not a huge financial loss, but certainly not a good look.

Scott Kingery

In 2018, the Phillies signed infield (and ultimately also outfield) prospect Scott Kingery to a 6 year/$24 million contract. This also allowed Kingery to join the club at the start of the 2018 season.

Kingery played 147 games for the Phils in 2018, hitting .226 with eight home runs and a 61 OPS+. In 2019, he played 126 games (with more plate appearances than the previous year), hit 19 home runs, and had a league-average 101 OPS+.

In 2020, shoulder pain limited him to 36 of the 60 games in the Covid-shortened season, and he hit three home runs with a 37 OPS+. 2021 was worse. He started in Triple-A, only getting called up in a pinch. He went 1-for-19 with 12 strike outs and was ultimately designated for assignment. In 2022, Kingery played one inning, going in as a defensive replacement in the ninth inning of a meaningless June game. He spent all of 2023 in Triple-A, and the team elected not to exercise their $13 million option for 2024.

For $24 million, Kingery gave Philadelphia 0.5 bWAR over six seasons. A creative deal that came to an ignominious end.

Evan White

In 2019, the Seattle Mariners signed Evan White to the same deal as Scott Kingery: 6 years/$24 million, with three options.

White started at first base on Opening Day, 2020. He then went on to hit .176, the lowest among qualified hitters in the 60-game shortened season. He did, however, win a Gold Glove, so that is worth something.

In 2021, White played in only 30 games, missing the rest of the season after undergoing hip surgery in July. In 2022, White went on the 60-day injured list with a sports hernia, and did not play a single game. In 2023, White started the season with a Grade 2 groin strain, and then missed the remainder of the season after having another hip surgery.

There are still two years left on White’s original contract, so there is time for him to turn around his and its fate – but it won’t be with the Mariners. Seattle included White with Jarred Kelenic in a trade with the Braves over the weekend.

Seattle paid White $7 million for -0.5 bWAR. Now the Braves will see what they can get for the $17 million they owe him over the remainder of the deal.

Eloy Jimenez

Prior to the 2019 season, the Chicago White Sox signed outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez to a 6 year/$43 million contract. This deal had two options, which could bring its total value to $75 million. This deal eclipsed the ones referenced above, and – at the time – became the richest for any player before making their MLB debut.

Jimenez is the reason you make these types of deals. In his rookie campaign, he hit 31 home runs, had a 116 OPS+, accrued 1.5 bWAR, and finished 4^th in Rookie of the Year voting. In 2020, Jimenez played in 55 of the 60 games, hit 14 home runs, and had an incredible 139 OPS+.

Unfortunately, in 2021, Jimenez ruptured his pectoral tendon trying to rob a homer in a Spring Training game. That cost him the first three months of the season. When he came back, he played 55 games, hit another 10 home runs, and had a league-average 99 OPS+.

The injury bug bit Jimenez early in 2022, as he suffered a hamstring strain in April that cost him another three months. He returned in July, played 84 games, slashed .295/.358/.500, for an eye-popping 141 OPS+, accruing 1.7 bWAR in the process.

An appendectomy cost Jimenez the month of May, 2023, but he was still able to bat .272, hit 18 homers, and have an above-league-average OPS+ of 104.

Jimenez still has one year left on his original deal. Over the first five, he has accrued 5.6 bWAR, which is worth roughly $45 million (per FanGraphs 8.1 million per bWAR measurement). As such, even with all of his injuries, the White Sox are already $2 million in the black on the deal, with another year to go.

Luis Robert

In 2020, the White Sox did it again, signing their top prospect to a 6 year/$50 million contract. There are also two $20 million options, with a $2 million buyout. It looks like the club struck gold again.

In the short 2020 season, Robert played 56 of 60 games, hit 11 home runs and had a perfectly league average 100 OPS+. He won a Gold Glove in centerfield and came in 2^nd in Rookie of the Year voting.

A complete tear of his right hip flexor in May of 2021 cut his season short. He didn’t return until early August. But he still finished the season with 13 home runs and 43 RBI, accruing an eye-popping 3.6 bWAR.

Various ailments and injuries (groin, Covid, illness, and wrist) derailed Robert’s 2022 season, allowing him to play in only 98 games. But he still slashed .284/.319/.426, with a 110 OPS+, and 2.1 bWAR.

Robert was back to form in 2023, playing in 145 games, hitting 38 homers, becoming an All-Star for the first time, winning his first Silver Slugger award, and accruing 5.0 bWAR.

Over the first four seasons of his deal, Robert has earned 12.5 bWAR, which is worth more than $100 million. In that time, the ChiSox have paid him about $20 million. If Robert doesn’t take another swing for the Southsiders over the course of the next two seasons, the deal will still be a grand slam. And if Robert gives the team even half of what Baseball Reference projects for him next season and in 2025, this deal will be one of the all-time bargains.

Conclusion

It goes without saying that the Brewers are holding their collective breaths and hoping that Jackson Chourio is more Jimenez and Robert than Singleton, Kingery, or White. There are no guarantees, as the latter three performances, and the former two injury histories, make abundantly clear. And that is why this deal is so interesting.

Chourio could have waited a few months, and done what Michael Harris II and Julio Rodriguez did, signing massive deals after a just a partial MLB season. But, again, there is no way to know for sure that the Brewers would have offered the same; or if he would have started the season with the big club; or, even if he did, if he would have performed at a level that would incent Milwaukee to make such an offer.

It is awfully hard for a 19-year old kid, who has never seen a single MLB pitch, to turn down generational money, when he can clearly see how the road to riches is paved with cautionary tales of players who didn’t live up to the hype, or their salaries. Even with this deal, Chourio could still become a free agent – and potentially sign a nine-figure contract – before he turns 30. Chourio took the money; now he just needs to play.