ETF Approval Priced In? Not Until BTC Sees $90K, Says One Analyst

• Plan B questions the discrepancy between the putative 90% approval odds for a spot Bitcoin ETF and Bitcoin’s current value.
• Plan B directed the question at Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg.
• Balchunas argues the odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved by Jan 10 are 90%.

X user Plan B, known as the creator of the Bitcoin Stock to Flow model, has raised a salient question about the current state of Bitcoin’s price.

The tweet, directed at Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, suggests a misalignment between the anticipated approval odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF and the current market value of the leading cryptocurrency.

“Something doesn’t add up. If odds are 90% that a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved, and that when approved, Bitcoin price will pump through $100k… then BTC price should be $90k TODAY. So what gives?” questioned Plan B.

This question has ignited speculation and curiosity. Plan B’s tweet came in response to Balchunas sharing an updated take on the odds of an ETF being approved, and the potential market impact this might have.

Balchunas emphasized that his prediction has not changed recently: “we still holding the line at 90% odds of approval by Jan 10 (aka this cycle), the same odds we’ve had for months (before it was cool/safe).”

He added that the focus now shifts to monitoring amended or final filings and gaining clarity on the distinction between in-kind and cash creation.

The prospect of a spot Bitcoin ETF gaining approval has long been viewed as a catalyst for a significant surge in BTC’s value. Bitcoin has surged 124% year to date amid anticipation of potential approval. 

However, Bitcoin’s current price is currently less than half of the hypothetical $90k mark proposed by Plan B, begging the question: are the ETFs priced in, or not?