Manchin Fuels Speculation Of Third-Party Run For President After Saying He Won’t Run For Reelection

Topline

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) announced Thursday he will not seek reelection, throwing a wrench in Democrats’ control of the Senate and refueling speculation the centrist Democrat could be seeking a third-party presidential run, a potential move that both Democrats and Republicans have seen as a threat to their parties’ hopes in 2024.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) announced Thursday he will not seek reelection.

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Key Facts

Manchin, who has indicated for months he has not ruled out a presidential run, announced in a video on X he will not run again for his senate seat in 2024, pledging instead to “mobilize the middle” as he travels across the country.

Speculation of a presidential run hit a boiling point in July, after the three-term senator announced he had raised $1.3 million during the second quarter this year, far outpacing his Republican challengers, Gov. Jim Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney (Manchin had racked up roughly $11.3 million as of mid-October, Politico reported).

Later that week, the 76-year-old senator, who has at times sparred with Democrats and President Joe Biden, teased a potential run at a town hall event with the centrist political group No Labels in New Hampshire, where he told the crowd, “If I get in a race, I’m going to win.”

Manchin denied rumors the event in the early primary state was tied to a third-party bid in an interview with CNN, though he added, cryptically, that he has “not ruled out anything,” while one Manchin ally told the Washington Post on the condition of anonymity he believed Manchin was “seriously considering all options.”

In a press statement ahead of the No Labels event, Manchin said the goal of the meeting was intended to promote “common-sense solutions to solve pressing issues facing our nation,” even though lawmakers on both sides of the aisle voiced concern a third-party candidate could sway voters away from either party (a handful of third-party candidates have since launched bids, including independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, as well as return Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who launched her bid Thursday).

In August, Manchin told MetroNews’ Hoppy Kercheval he had been contemplating for “quite some time” ditching the Democratic Party and declaring himself an independent, potentially tightening Democrats’ lead in the Senate — Democrats hold a narrow 51-49 lead in the Senate, including independent Sens. Bernie Sanders (Vt.), Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) and Angus King (Maine).

Chief Critic

President Donald Trump, who endorsed Justice to replace Manchin in the Senate, argued on his social media platform Truth Social that Manchin decided not to seek reelection because of Trump’s endorsement and because Justice is leading in early polling — Justice leads Manchin by 13 points in an Emerson College poll conducted between October 1 and October 4.

Tangent

In a hypothetical re-match of the 2020 election, Biden trails Trump in five of six battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania), according to a New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this week, though Biden later argued the poll leaves out recent polling showing him ahead of or tied with Trump in a re-match (most recent polls, however, show Biden slightly behind Trump in a head-to-head matchup).

Contra

Manchin has been a thorn in Biden’s side on a set of major bills throughout his presidency, most notably Biden’s proposed Build Back Better plan last year — though Manchin has seen eye-to-eye with Biden on a number of issues, and votes in line with him 87.9% of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight. Last summer, Manchin agreed to support a pared-down version of Biden’s sweeping climate and tax deal after months of negotiations, with Manchin ultimately striking a deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on the $430 billion bill. Manchin has also slammed Biden on several topics, including in January, when Manchin told NBC’s “Meet the Press” he believes Biden should “have a lot of regrets” over his handling of White House documents after FBI agents discovered a tranche of classified documents at Biden’s home in Wilmington, Delaware. Biden, in turn, has taken swipes at Manchin, including a jab at the West Virginia senator four months into his presidency, when he called out Manchin for distancing himself from Democrats on key issues, chastising Manchin and Sinema for voting “more with my Republican friends” (Sinema switched left the Democratic Party late last year).

Surprising Fact

Manchin would be 77 years old by the 2024 election and 81 by the end of a potential four-year term. Manchin is only one year younger than former President Donald Trump (77) and four years younger than Biden (80).