Yen could nosedive if the MOF does not intervene when the 150 mark is breached – Commerzbank

The market maintains the downside pressure on the Yen. Economists at Commerzbank analyze JPY outlook.

The MOF under pressure to act

Pressure is limited by the 150 mark in USD/JPY because it has to be assumed that the Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervenes at this level.

As the market has very clearly taken this view, the MOF is under pressure to act at 150 in USD/JPY. If it does not intervene when the 150 mark is breached, it would be perceived as a toothless tiger and the Yen really could nosedive. On the other hand, it seems questionable whether the MOF can defend a USD/JPY level in perpetuity while the BoJ is so obviously weakening the Yen.

Both factors combined mean: the MOF’s threats of an intervention might cause the opposite of what it intended to achieve in the end: instead of JPY recovery, it might cause JPY depreciation.