- The Greenback was able to print a weekly gain on Friday.
- A lighter week begins with only Retail Sales and Powell’s speech as focal points.
- The US Dollar Index was unable to print a new weekly high and might still reverse.
The US Dollar (USD) is choosing the easy way, sideways, as some geopolitical headlines are making the news on Monday. Not only is Russian President Putin getting involved with the Israelic war in Gaza, but Iran is adding to the tensions. Several headlines came out of the state saying that the time for political solutions is at an end and that an expansion of war is approaching an inevitable stage, seeing Crude prices jump higher, though the US Dollar Index not reacting.
No big data points are scheduled on Monday, so expect fewer sharp moves in the market. One element to keep an eye on is Central Europe, where in Poland saw a big power shift happen on Sunday during elections. One of the opposition parties is set to gain a majority over the ruling party, and the Polish Zloty appreciated by over 1.5% against the Greenback. All Central European currencies, in fact, are up against the Greenback.
Daily digest: US Dollar steady with risk-on
- US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says support for Ukraine remains top priority. Ukraine cannot lose war for economic reasons.
- President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said to British Prime Minister Richie Sunak that Western countries shoudl refrain form provocative acts regarding Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
- The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for October has moved from 1.90 previous to -4.6. Less negative than the expectation of -7.00.
- The US Treasury is set to issue a few auctions with a 3-month and a 6-month bill auction at 15:30 GMT.
- To round up the calm Monday, expect to see comments from Patrick Harker from the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia at 20:30 GMT.
- Equities are sliding lower with the Japanese Nikkei down over 2%. The Chinese Shanghai Shenzhen Composite slides over 1%. Meanwhile, European equities are rallying higher on that pro-European opposition in Poland set to claim victory in the Polish elections. US futures are taking over the sentiment and are soaring by 1% on average.
- The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a 90.2% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting in November.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.71% and is ticking up a touch this Monday.
US Dollar Index technical analysis: DXY steady as markets advance
The US Dollar might be popping back into its normal regime from the past few months by overtaking the summer rally trendline. Do not pop the champagne just yet though as no weekly high got printed. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) this Monday is opening below the closing price from Friday, which could point to some selling and might see the DXY fade lower in search of support.
A bounce above the daily trendline from July 18 might still materialise. On the topside, 107.19 is important to reach if the DXY can get a daily close above that level. If this is the case, 109.30 is the next level to watch.
On the downside, the recent resistance at 105.88 did not do a good job supporting any downturn. Instead, look for 105.12 to keep the DXY above 105.00. If that does not do the trick, 104.33 will be the best level to look for some resurgence in US Dollar strength with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as a support level.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-starts-off-week-asleep-after-last-weeks-questionable-performance-202310161000