Technical outlook will sour if Kiwi makes a new cycle low – ANZ

NZD/USD ended the week a lot lower. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze Kiwi’s outlook.

Q3 CPI key for the RBNZ, and by extension, short-end rates and NZD

The Kiwi hasn’t quite mapped out a triple-bottom, but it came close (the early Sep low was 0.5859, the early Oct low was 0.5871, and Friday night’s low was 0.5884), and the technical outlook will sour if it makes a new cycle low.

Although there were elements of surprise in the election result, it broadly matched polls, and the strong result for the opposition removes a source of uncertainty, coalition talks notwithstanding. Q3 CPI is out today; it’ll be key for the RBNZ, and by extension, short-end rates and the Kiwi.