The Russian Army Reportedly Lost 34 Tanks Trying To Cut Off Avdiivka

Russian forces in Ukraine are on the attack. Their goal: finally to capture Avdiivka, a free settlement that lies just northwest of Donetsk, the seat of one of the pro-Russian separatist “republics” in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.

The Russians last year spent months trying and failing to eject Avdiivka’s Ukrainian garrison. Now, amid a lull in Ukraine’s four-month-old counteroffensive, they’re trying again.

It’s not going well for the Russians. In directly assaulting dug-in Ukrainian troops, Russian troops are relearning the same hard lesson the Ukrainians relearned in the early weeks of the counteroffensive.

Attacking enemy fortifications is hard and costly when the enemy’s artillery is pre-sighted and their drones are everywhere. The odds are good the attack will fail, and leave retreating regiments—and the positions they hold—weaker than they were before.

A day after the Russian attack kicked off on Tuesday, the fields between Russian and Ukrainian positions north and south of Avdiivka are littered with wrecked Russian vehicles and dead and wounded Russian infantry.

Independent analysts who tally combat losses in Ukraine quickly gauged the scale of the debacle as Russian regiments rolled into Ukrainian artillery and missile kill zones. Analyst Andrew Perpetua in just the last 24 hours has verified around 70 vehicle losses on the Russian side, but only around 15 on the Ukrainian side.

Among the Russian losses is at least one of four main tank types: T-62s, T-72s, T-80s and T-90s. The only type missing is the 70-year-old T-54/55. One Ukrainian source claimed the Russians lost 34 tanks, in all.

It seems the Russians have concentrated around half a dozen motor-rifle regiments and brigades for their two-prong assault on Avdiivka. With several thousand infantry and hundreds of tanks and fighting vehicles between them, the attackers on paper outnumbered the approximately two-brigade Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka.

The Russians also enjoy significant air and artillery support. Russian air force Sukhoi Su-35 fighter-bombers reportedly bombarded Avdiivka. There were reports of strikes by guided munitions, presumably the UPABs and KABs that Ukrainian troops have described as the most terrifying of Russia’s weapons.

All that Russian firepower didn’t matter yesterday. Not when the Ukrainian brigades had months—years, even—to dig in. “The Ukrainian defenders are bravely holding the line,” the Ukrainian general staff reported on Wednesday. They “repelled 10 enemy attacks near Avdiivka and another eight attacks in the areas east of Stepove and southeast of Sjeverne” along the same sector of the front.

Unblinking Ukrainian surveillance was key to the defensive effort. Unit 129, which flies drones on behalf of territorial troops in Avdiivka, reported flying for 20 hours straight and pinpointing the entire Russian assault force. “Everyone was found,” the unit claimed.

It’s a matter of intensive debate whether the Russian armed forces in Ukraine still possess significant operational reserves: uncommitted formations that still have most of their troops and vehicles and aren’t exhausted from months of ceaseless fighting.

Even if the Russians do still have lots of troops in reserve, the failed assault on Avdiivka at least will eat into those reserves by compelling the Kremlin to restore or replace units that suffered heavy casualties in the attack.

But it’s far too soon for the Ukrainians to declare victory. The Russians’ aim, apparently, is to envelope Avdiivka without assaulting the settlement’s urban center. If they can pinch the terrain around Avdiivka, the Russians could starve the Ukrainian garrison.

The Russians might regroup and try again. All eyes are on the fields around the settlement as the sun comes up in Ukraine on Wednesday and the Russians get their second chance to attack. “The situation is very serious,” Ukrainian journalist Yurii Butusov warned.