GBP/JPY fighting back towards 184.00 as Yen eases lower

• GBP/JPY clipping back towards 184.00 as market risk appetite takes a cautious bite.
• Markets are leaning risk-on, but tone remains overly cautious, market moves to stay thin.
• Pound Sterling traders will be looking ahead to Thursday’s UK production figures.

The GBP/JPY is catching a thin but determined bid for Wednesday, with the pair easing higher into 183.35, with bull’s eyes set on 184.00.

The Guppy set an intraday high of 183.75 on the day, and bidders will be looking to gear up for another run higher as long as market pressures continue to push down on the Yen (JPY).

Japanese activity indicators are due late Wednesday at 23:50 GMT, when Tokyo markets will be heading into their early Thursday trading session, but data is likely to be low-impact with much of the release already priced in.

Japanese Bank Lending for the year into September is seen holding steady at 3.1%; Machinery Orders for August are expected to rebound to 0.4% from the previous decline of 1.1%; and Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for September is seen slipping from 0.3% to 0.1% against the previous month.

On the Pound Sterling (GBP) side of the Guppy coin, traders will be looking ahead to Thursday’s UK Industrial & Manufacturing Production numbers, as well as a monthly read on UK Gross Domestic Product(GDP). UK Industrial Production for August is expected to decline by 0.2%, against the previous month’s -0.7% backslide, while Manufacturing Production for the same period is forecast to rebound from -0.8% to -0.4%, a better number but still in the red.

UK Gross Domestic Product for August is seen recovering from the previous month’s -0.5% contraction to an on-balance 0.2%, and GBP traders will want to keep an eye out for any nasty surprises from Thursday’s UK Goods Trade Balance, which is expected to be low-impact but could see a shot in the arm of Pound Sterling markets if numbers deviate wildly.

GBP/JPY Technical Outlook

The Guppy’s near-term recovery sees the pair knocking into the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), sticking close to the midpoint of the last fifty trading days as the Pound Sterling struggles to develop meaningful momentum against the Japanese Yen.

Looking longer-term, the GBP/JPY remains in firmly bullish territory, with price action trading well above the 200-day SMA near 173.00, and it’s GBP bulls’ game to lose from here, though upside potential could remain limited with Yen-based pairs consistently trading into areas that are prone to draw FX market intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ)_ if bids run too far out of control.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Technical Levels