Pre-Holiday Liftoff, Week In Review

Week in Review

• Asian equities had a mixed week as China reported better-than-expected industrial profits for August, up +17% year-over-year versus July’s -7%, in another sign that China’s economic recovery is gaining some momentum.
• There was some more good news on the diplomatic front this week as Xi Jinping met with South Korea’s foreign minister and is said to be planning his first trip to the republic while US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan noted “candid” talks with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Malta.
• Mainland media reported that JD.com may start selling cars, allowing users to make deposits on new Teslas through JD’s platform.
• Mainland markets will be closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival until Friday and Hong Kong markets will be closed on Monday.

Friday’s Key News

Asian equities were mixed overnight as Hong Kong outperformed, though Mainland China and Taiwan were closed for Mid-Autumn Festival, Pakistan was closed for Mawlid-al-Nabi, and South Korea was closed for Chuseok-Thanksgiving.

Hong Kong had a strong end to the week, month, and quarter, as the Hang Seng gained +2.51% and the Hang Seng Tech gained +3.77%, though on light, pre-holiday volumes. Positive developments lifted stocks, including the Wall Street Journal reporting that China will send its Vice Premier and Foreign Minister to Washington, DC. Meanwhile, Shenzhen lowered its first-time buyer mortgage rate, which lifted real estate stocks.

NIO jumped +9.17% after yesterday’s rumor of a Mercedes Benz partnership.

Nike’s financial results lifted athletic and apparel stocks like AntaHK listed internet stocks had a strong day outperforming the broad market as they represent the “good stuff” investors want to own when buying China. Today’s move might have been driven by positioning in advance of what is expected to e strong data on domestic tourism, hotel, plane, and train bookings. We will have the usual vacation week photos of packed train stations and massive traffic jams. We may also see more stimulus measures rolled out before markets reopen. Both Northbound and Southbound Stock Connect were closed today and all of next week.

I have proposed that US equities are the most crowded trade ever based on 14 years (56 quarters) of outperforming non-US equities, aided by a strong US dollar. I had this thought after meeting with institutional investors across the globe, who are all overweight US equities versus non-US and especially emerging markets and China. We recently engaged a US broker-dealer platform about a potential partnership, though we asked how much of their financial advisors’ assets were invested in emerging markets. Would you believe that is was less than 1% out of hundreds of billions? Time will tell, but markets usually do what is least anticipated…

The Hang Seng and Hang Seng Tech indexes rose +2.51% and +3.77%, respectively, on volume that decreased -15.63% from yesterday, which is 59% of the 1-year average. 382 stocks advanced while 109 declined. Main Board short turnover declined -30% from yesterday, which is 109% of the 1-year average, as 16% of volume was short turnover (remember Hong Kong short turnover includes ETF short volume which is driven by market makers’ ETF hedging). The growth factor outperformed the value factor while small caps outperformed large caps. Southbound Stock Connect was closed today.

Shanghai, Shenzhen, and the STAR Board were all closed today.

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Last Night’s Performance

Last Night’s Exchange Rates, Prices, & Yields

Mainland bond and currency markets were closed overnight