New MLB Tiebreaker Format Hurts Cubs’ Playoff Chances

With four regular season games left, the Cubs have been inched out of the playoffs. For now, at least. They are technically tied, standings-wise, with the Marlins, but thanks to the new tiebreaker rules, Miami owns the third wild card spot and the Cubs’ season would end after Sunday.

Despite having the same record, and despite the Cubs having a much better run differential — currently to the tune of 157 runs — they would miss the playoffs and Miami would head to Milwaukee to face the Brewers in the wild card round.

Until this season, there would have been a game 163 between the two teams to decide who moves on and who is done for the year. But now that the wild card round has been expanded from one game to a three game series, we have the tiebreaker. It comes down to how the teams have fared in head-to-head contests, and the Marlins are 4-2 against the Cubs this year.

Fair or not, this is the new playoff format.

Thanks to another loss to the Braves and the Marlins winning the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Mets, the Cubs find themselves on the outside of the postseason looking in.

After Tuesday night’s stunning loss to Atlanta, the Cubs twice had a lead late in Wednesday’s game only to loss in the bottom of the tenth inning. The problem for the Cubs on Wednesday was similar to the night before: Not having Adbert Alzolay to finish the game proved costly, and a bullpen that has been generally reliable and steady all season is showing wear and tear.

On Wednesday night, starter Jameson Taillon pitched six solid innings, allowing only two runs and leaving with the Cubs ahead, 3-2. But Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr., and Daniel Palencia all gave up runs in relief — all guys who have been sturdy during much of the season — and it was Palencia who allowed the decisive runs in the tenth inning.

“We got to a place of real stability for a long time and had a really good bullpen,” team president Jed Hoyer told reporters. “Obviously, the guys that we’re relying on six, seven, eight, nine right now are often not the guys that we were for a long time. And at this point we just have to figure it out.”

Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins approached the August 1 trade deadline assertively, but prioritized offense. Infielder Jeimer Candelario was their most significant addition, and Jose Cuas was the only reliever to join the fold at the deadline.

In hindsight, it seems clear that being more aggressive two months ago about bullpen arms would probably be helping the Cubs now. In theory, at least, they might have won the last two games against the Braves and not be in their current position.

But those are things that Hoyer and Hawkins would have had a harder time predicting back in late July when they were lining up their trade offers.

“At the deadline, we had a lot of factors,” Hoyer said, “and there weren’t really arms that we felt like we could access at that time. And you look around, a lot of teams had the same challenge. I think it comes down to just building up that depth, and I think you’re ultimately going to have to rely on player development.

“For a huge chunk of the season, I think that was effective. It hasn’t been effective late, so yeah, I have to look at myself and say, ‘What are we going to do differently for next year?’”

Going forward, the Cubs have four games left. Not easy ones; they will finish their series against the Braves Thursday night and then head to Milwaukee to face the Brewers for the last three games of the season. The Brewers have already clinched the National League Central, but because they will not have a bye for the wild card round, they will likely approach that series preparing for whichever opponent they will face to begin the playoffs.

That could still be the Cubs, depending on how the next four days go. And the Brewers might be incentivized to not let that happen. The two teams have gone 5-5 this season, with tough games in Milwaukee in July and a losing series at Wrigley for the Brewers at the end of August.

In the bigger picture, the Brewers wouldn’t be looking to let their foot off of the proverbial gas those last three games anyway. Momentum headed into the playoffs is valuable, regardless of who they are playing. Sure, there might be some added motivation to keep the Cubs out of the playoff picture, but that is not likely to be a significant factor.

The reality is, the Cubs’ playoff chances will come down to what they do the next four days. They cannot control what happens with the Marlins, and they have to play with the roster that they have.

“I thought we brought it today,” second baseman Nico Hoerner told reporters Wednesday. “Just like we’re going to bring it tomorrow and the next day, and trust that in the next four games, that plays out as best it can. That’s what we can control.”