Predicting The OKC Thunder’s 2023-24 Record

Last season the Western Conference was extremely volatile as it related to the standings, as teams projected to be near the top underperformed, while others with lower expectations exceeded them. Perhaps the most surprising team in the West last season was the Oklahoma City Thunder, who emerged as one of the most talented young teams in the NBA.

It was a breakout campaign from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who made it known he’s one of the 10 best players in the league and the clear face of the franchise in OKC. Furthermore, Josh Giddey took a huge leap while rookie Jalen Williams played like a future star. What was even more shocking was the fact that the roster didn’t contain a real center to act as a rim protector or lob threat. Chet Holmgren suffered a season-ending injury before the start of the 2022-23 campaign, but the Thunder overcame adversity and pushed forward with a positionless lineup.

Entering the 2023-24 season, there’s even more reason for optimism. Not only is Holmgren set to finally make his debut and be a starter from day one, but the roster overall will be even better. Kenrich Williams and Aleksej Pokusevski missed a good portion of the season down the stretch, but are set to take the floor this season. Furthermore, Oklahoma City added new pieces to the roster who will have the chance to make an instant impact.

One of these new faces is Vasilije Micic, who was one of the most productive and decorated players in the world outside of the NBA before being signed by the Thunder. At 29 years old, he’s already extremely experienced and could be a real rotation piece from day one. As a primary facilitator and knockdown 3-point shooter, he will have the chance to run the second unit effectively.

Another key piece that will be added to the rotation is Cason Wallace, who was the No. 10 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft after one season at Kentucky. As good as he is on both ends of the floor, he will be a rookie and could take longer to impact the game. Regardless, there should be stretches this season in which he makes real contributions.

Finally, the contracts of Victor Oladipo and Davis Bertans were absorbed by the Thunder attached to draft capital this offseason, but it’s unclear what their future holds in Oklahoma City. Oladipo is coming off yet another injury, but could be impactful later in the season if he makes final roster cuts. Bertans is one of the better 3-point shooters in the league and has great size for what he’s able to do overall on offense.

All things considered, what should fans across the league expect from Oklahoma City this season given the improved roster?

Over the past few seasons, the Thunder has continued to improve, with another opportunity to do so in the 2023-24 campaign.

• 2020-21: 22-50
• 2021-22: 24-58
• 2022-23: 40-42

In the upcoming season, the Thunder is projected to improve by roughly four wins. If these odds are accurate, Oklahoma City would finish around 44-38. There’s six in-conference teams that are projected to be within a few games of this win total at the end of the season, showing just how competitive the West should be.

If this were the case and these projected win totals came to fruition, the Thunder would likely finish once again in the play-in picture.

As good as the roster looks to be on paper, 44 wins could still be difficult to accomplish. Integrating these new pieces, especially Holmgren, could take time. Additionally, Oklahoma City was fortunate as it related to key players not being often injured last season, which isn’t something that can be banked on moving forward. Injuries are part of the game.

The Western Conference holistically should also be better this season, as only two teams are projected to win less than 30 games. There will be even more balance in the middle of the standings and fewer dominant teams at the top too.

Due to these reasons, expect the Thunder to be somewhere in the ballpark of 41-41 at the end of the season. This would be an improvement from the 2022-23 campaign and should also get OKC in the play-in tournament. It may not be the significant jump many think the Thunder could make this season, but there’s quite a few factors — controllable and uncontrollable — that make significant jumps year-over-year so difficult.