GBP/USD has 1.20 in its sights – SocGen

Plenty of central bank meetings this week, none likely to derail the Dollar rally, in the view of Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale.

A soft Euro will help keep EUR/CHF down

In G10, I don’t think central banks dominate the currency outlook quite as much now, as they did six months ago. The growth outlook matters more and, in that sense, perhaps the long end of the yield curve matters more than policy rates, too. 

The Euro got no help from last week’s ECB rate hike and Sterling may not get much from the MPC meeting. An announcement on gilt sales is likely, but would rising yields from here bring in buyers or trigger a loss of confidence? GBP/USD has 1.20 in its sights. CPI (Wednesday and Retail Sales (Friday) are worth watching, too. 

As for the SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank, if we get 25 bps hikes from all three, SEK may be the currency that benefits least. Domestic concerns are too great. NOK is helped by Oil prices even if global nerves don’t help and a soft Euro will help keep EUR/CHF down.