Phillies Second Baseman Bryson Stott

Offensive players fall into fairly easily identifiable tiers. First, there are the obvious superstars, the guys regularly in the hunt for MVP awards. Guys like Ronald Acuna Jr., Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. There are a handful more, but you get the point.

Then there is the next tier – the well above average regular. They play in All Star Games – not every year, mind you – but generally in more than one, and not just because their team needs a representative. The really good teams tend to have more than their share of these guys, like the Braves’ Austin Riley and Dodgers’ Will Smith.

Then there is the average regular. They might make an All Star team in their best season, but generally aren’t eye-catching and tend to simply make the trains run on time. Like the Cubs’ Nico Hoerner and the Reds’ Jonathan India.

Sometimes, during a player’s early seasons, they grow out of the average regular and into the above average regular group. For whatever reason – the players’ physical ship comes in, or he eliminates weaker or sharpens stronger areas of his game.

Last season, the Indians’ Andres Gimenez appeared to graduate from the average to the well above average group. He spun a .297-.371-.466 batting line, made an All Star team, won a Gold Glove and finished 6th in the AL MVP voting. There was just one problem – his batted ball fundamentals didn’t support such offensive improvement, and here we are, with Gimenez batting .233-.303-.376 through Saturday’s games. And who wants to bet that with such an offensive decline, his glove will suddenly receive less acclaim and he’ll fail to repeat as Gold Glove winner.

Gimenez far outperformed his fundamentals on fly balls (132 Unadjusted vs. 95 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) and ground balls (208 vs. 99). On all batted balls, his Unadjusted Contact Score of 139 far outstripped his adjusted 95 mark. Add back the Ks and BBs, and Gimenez “should have” hit .245-.293-.374, for a 90 “Tru” Production+ that was miles shy of his 142 wRC+. Oh, and his 2023 wRC+? Exactly 90.

So I searched through all 2023 MLB regulars to look for this year’s Gimenez.

Second baseman? Check.

Fairly young guy, on the way up? (Gimenez was 23 in 2022.) Check.

Decent and sharply increasing power production? Check.

Reasonably prolific and high percentage basestealer? Check.

And batted ball fundamentals that don’t support such an offensive surge and are likely indicative of a return to normalcy moving forward? Check.

Meet Phillies’ 2B Bryson Stott. He’s 25 years old, and like Gimenez in 2022, is in his second season as a regular. Like Gimenez, he primarily played shortstop in his rookie year before sliding over to second base the next year. Though he’s only added four homers to date this season, he’s tacked on an additional 80 points of SLG and has more than doubled his stolen base total to 25, only being caught twice. He’s hitting .291-.335-.438 through Saturday’s games, and Phillies’ fans have even started comparing him to a young Chase Utley.

Slow down.

Let’s start with the good things about Bryson Stott. He never pops up. His strikeout rate is low at 15.4%, well down from last season. The lefty hitter handles same-handed pitching about the same as he does righties. He uses the field, so defenses have to play him honest in the infield. As a former shortstop, he handles the defensive demands of his new position quite well. Pretty good baseline for at least an average regular right there.

Now for the negatives.

Stott simply does not hit the ball hard. He hasn’t hit a single batted ball at 110 mph or harder this season, and hasn’t hit a fly ball above 105 mph.

His Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is a meager 50. The only NL regulars with a lower mark, in descending order are Joey Meneses, Hoerner, Jeff McNeil, Geraldo Perdomo, Luis Arraez and TJ Friedl. And Stott is not nearly the line drive machine that Arraez is. His actual, Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is quite a bit higher at 74. He has quite a few “just enough” homers and can’t be counted upon for double-digit production moving forward despite potentially increasing his physical strength.

He’s also been quite fortunate on the ground, with a 132 Unadjusted vs. 91 Adjusted Grounder Contact Score. Stott is lefthanded and runs well, but is not a true burner. Such a speed premium can’t simply be baked into his future numbers.

Overall, he has a 99 Unadjusted vs. 80 Adjusted Contact Score, and an 87 “Tru” Production+ compared to his current 111 wRC+. Based on his underlying batted ball portfolio, Stott “should be” hitting .262-.307-.381.

Year on year, he has made progress. The K rate is down, and the pop up rate is down sharply. The batted ball quality and authority, however, have been flat, with no signs of growth. His BB rate is also fairly sharply down. While his “Tru” Production+ is up from 78 to 87, that still falls far short from conjuring images of Chase Utley.

Don’t get me wrong, the Phillies and their fans should be very happy with Bryson Stott. League average regulars who stay healthy and punch the clock every day are quite valuable, especially through their arbitration years. And that’s what Stott is – he’s a lot more Mickey Morandini than he is Chase Utley.