NZD/USD consolidates its losses near 0.5950, eyes on Chinese, US Services PMI

• NZD/USD remains on the defensive around 0.5956 after retracing from 0.6015.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 187,000, better than 170,000 expected.
• New Zealand Terms of Trade Index Q2 improved to 0.4% versus a 1.5% drop in the previous reading.

The NZD/USD pair consolidates its recent losses below the 0.6000 barrier during the early Asian session on Monday. The pair currently trades near 0.5956, gaining 0.17% on the day. The Kiwi (NZD) is weakened against the US Dollar (USD) following Friday’s upbeat US economic data and the headlines surrounding the US-China trade war tension.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for August came in at 187,000, better than the estimation of 170,000 and July’s reading of 157,000. The Unemployment Rate fell significantly to 3.8%, compared to the market estimate of 3.5% and the prior data of 3.5%. The monthly Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2%, against the expectation of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the US Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.6 versus 46.4 prior and better than the market consensus of 47.0.

Following the economic data, markets believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to end the tightening cycle. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets have priced in that the Fed will not hike rates in its September meeting and the odds of raising rates in November and December decreased to almost 35%.

On the Kiwi front, the New Zealand Terms of Trade Index for the second quarter improved to 0.4% versus a 1.5% drop in the previous reading and better than the expectation of a 1.3% drop. The upbeat data failed to impress the NZD/USD bulls amid the US holiday on Monday. Last week, the ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence for August showed that consumer confidence in New Zealand improved marginally to 85 in August from 83.7 but remained at subdued levels.

Apart from this, US Commerce Secretary Raimondo stated that China is making the situation more difficult. He added that a lack of a predictable environment and a fair playing field are the primary drivers affecting US business in China. The renewed tension between the US and China might exert some selling pressure on the China-proxy Kiwi and act as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair.

The US market is closed for the Labor Day holiday. Market participants will digest the US economic data on Friday ahead of the Chinese Caixin Services PMI for August due on Tuesday. Also, the US ISM Services PMI will be released on Wednesday. Traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around the NZD/USD pair.