Harsh Truth About Damian Lillard Trade Market: It Wasn’t Really There

Lost amid the great hue and cry around veteran Portland Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard and the terribly limited list of NBA teams to which he wants to be traded—a list of one, by admissions of his own agent, Aaron Goodwin, that one being the Heat—is a simple fact. Even before Lillard himself limited his market down to the Miamians, the market on making a trade for him was not exactly bustling.

Sure, the assertion from Lillard that he wants to be in Miami and Miami alone has frightened off potential outside suitors that the Trail Blazers could use to drum up better offers, whether from the Heat or elsewhere. The Blazers do not want to be robbed in a Lillard deal, and the current likely offer from the Heat, built around Tyler Herro (a backcourt player the Blazers neither want nor need), would amount to what Hall of Famer and broadcaster Charles Barkley termed, “unfair,” this week.

But the Lillard situation can’t be looked at in black-and-white. His value is not just his ability on the floor, which is still considerable. He did average 32.2 points and 7.3 assists last year, while shooting 46.3% from the field and 37.1% from the 3-point line. Important numbers to consider, though, are 33 and 77. That is, respectively, Lillard’s age and the number of games he has missed in the past two seasons.

“I don’t think anyone likes the idea of Dame coming in and forcing the Blazers’ hand like this, forcing them to take a deal from a team that does not have the assets,” one NBA front-office executive told me. “That’s a bad precedent, and it is one we are seeing too much of. But if Dame had not said, ‘Miami or nothing,’ where else was Portland really going to go for a deal? Maybe Brooklyn? But where else? There’s not that many teams that are going to give you a bunch of players and picks for a 33-year-old who can’t stay healthy and has a giant contract sitting there.”

Lillard Set To Receive More Than $200 Million

Ah, right, the contract.

Lillard is sitting on a guarantee of about $215 million over the next four seasons. That includes a two-year extension he signed last summer worth more than $120 million. In his age 35 season, Lillard will be getting paid $58.5 million. When he is 36, that goes to $63 million.

Lillard has missed time in the past two seasons, and it is fair to wonder whether those were fluke injuries or part of a steady breakdown. An abdominal tear cost him much of 2021-22, and 24 games last year were lost to calf, ankle and wrist injuries.

That makes Lillard a gamble. Even just picking up the remainder of his contract is a gamble, because it’s a lot of money with little assurance he will be on the floor. Not many teams could afford to take that gamble. Maybe the Sixers, if there was a way to swap out James Harden in the mix. Maybe the Clippers, if they could send out a star, too. There was talk around the league about the Nets possibly pursuing Lillard, but Brooklyn never made an offer and would not be willing to give up young stars Cam Johnson or Mikal Bridges in a trade.

Still, the NBA office has not been well pleased by what’s gone on with Lillard, and in late July, sent out a memo to all 30 teams clarifying that Lillard would honor his contract if he were traded to Miami or anywhere else. That changed absolutely nothing.

“Well, the league wanted to see a market for him,” the exec said. “Of course, owners don’t want players picking their trade destination and shutting out the other 28 teams. But it was not anything Dame said or Aaron Goodwin said that shut down the market. That stuff didn’t help. But there weren’t teams lined up for him even before that.”

Even if Lillard had never breathed a word about preferred destinations, Miami was always going to make the most sense. The only team that could take a chance on Lillard is one that was close to a title in this moment, one that could afford to overpay now and worry about the future when the future arrived. That’s Miami, coming off a trip to the NBA Finals against Denver last spring.

Miami is a team that, like Lillard, is aging and looking to make just one more run at the Finals. It is a team that has been careful with the luxury tax in recent years but can afford to go over and spend heavier if needed. Certainly, Lillard’s contract would likely force Miami well into the tax.

Who else around the NBA fit that bill? By saying he wanted to go only to Miami, whom did Lillard really scare off?

Probably no one. Because even before the drama around Dame and the Heat unfolded, other factors had left the market for him pretty barren.