The Challenges Of The Ukrainian Counteroffensive

Two months ago, Ukrainian forces initiated a counteroffensive to retake portions of their country controlled by Russia. Progress has been slow due to the presence of an intricate network of Russian obstacle belts, including extensive minefields. While minefields have been used for over a century as defensive obstacles, the challenge is magnified by their integration with modern Russian drones. This dynamic will require that the Ukrainian forces devise a solution to neutralize these drones before they can effectively advance through the minefields.

Contrary to common belief, minefields are not designed to destroy enemy forces outright; rather, they serve to deny access to certain areas, exploiting the reluctance of any force to enter hazardous zones. In response, attacking armies are left with two options: maneuver around the minefield, often at a tactical disadvantage, or attempt to breach it. There exists a range of methods for breaching a minefield. Among these, the quickest method is to use a rocket-propelled line charge like the M58 Mine Clearing Line Charge (MICLIC) system. This system shoots out a cable with attached explosives, which then detonates to clear a path through the mines. Alternatively, mine rollers or flails attached to the front of armored vehicles provide a slower but methodical means of breaching. Lastly, combat engineers may undertake the painstaking process of manual mine clearance, despite the associated dangers posed by anti-personnel mines.

Regardless of the process, the breaching troops must move slowly along a narrow path through the minefield, rendering them susceptible to artillery barrages. As such, a key component to any minefield is an overwatch positions, where forward observers can spot the breaching forces and call for artillery strikes. Indeed, in mine warfare, artillery inflicts more damage than the mines themselves. To mitigate the impact of artillery strikes, a breaching unit typically uses smoke to obscure their position while also targeting enemy overwatch positions with their own artillery.

While historically the overwatch function has been performed by soldiers positioned in observation posts placed, the Russians are likely using their drones to perform this key function. Thus far in the war, much of the Russian surveillance has been performed by their extensive drone fleet, particular their Orlan-10 drones. These drone systems can continually patrol large expanses, providing video feeds of the minefields from a safe altitude. The drone operators, located in remote locations, can monitor these feeds and call for artillery strikes upon detecting Ukrainian forces entering the minefields. Beyond coordination with artillery, the Russians possess weaponized drones like the Shahed 136 loitering munition, capable of independently striking Ukrainian breaching units. This strategic integration further reduces the time available to Ukrainian forces for minefield breach and advancement.

While the Ukrainians could still hide their actions through the use of smoke and other concealing agents, most modern Russian drone systems have advanced optics that can see through these obscurants. Additionally, the Russian military has developed electronic weapon systems capable of pinpointing communication nodes, such as vehicle radios. Given the importance of communication in breaching operations, the Russians can identify the source of a radio transmission, enabling accurate targeting. The Russian military employed such tactics throughout the current invasion as well as their 2014 invasion of Crimea.

Given the use of Russian drones performing the overwatch function, Ukrainian forces must neutralize the drones before they can breach the minefields and attack the main Russian force, the overarching goal of the counteroffensive. Fortunately, the Ukrainians have a number of counter-drone systems available. The recent aid packages from the U.S. included an unspecified quantity of VAMPIRE systems, a laser-guided rocket system that detects and shoots down incoming drones. The U.S. has also provided Ukraine with counter-drone gun trucks and the associated ammunition. Ukraine further recently received a series of CORTEX Typhon counter-drone systems from the Norwegian company Kongsberg. While these systems present potential for drone neutralization on the near term, the evolving nature of drones and counter-drone technology will likely prompt the Russians to adapt their drones to be resilient to these counter-drone systems.

The juxtaposition of cutting-edge systems employed alongside dated technology has consistently characterized this war. The most recent case – drones providing overwatch to minefields – have proven to be fairly effective for the Russian forces. Similarly, new counter-drone technology, coupled with conventional breaching techniques, could provide an avenue for the Ukrainians to overcome Russian the minefields and continue their counteroffensive.