Momentum becoming less negative, it is the beginning of a breakout higher – TDS

Economists at TD Securities expect the AUD/USD pair to bounce back higher.

0.64 offers support

The negative China market narrative is too aggressively priced now. In particular, we think that Chinese economic stress has already been priced in and any surprise leans to the upside. We also think the financial crisis narrative is way overhyped and China’s stimulus is likely to shift sentiment in H2 and early 2024. 

While our macro team’s most updated call is that the RBA is done with hiking, they do note the risk of another 25 bps hikes before the end of the year. Against this, AUD is one of the cheapest currencies on our dashboard. 

With US data surprises picking up negative momentum, we also see the US economy slowing in H2, which is likely to drain the USD of support in the months ahead. Note that our house call is that the Fed is at terminal. 

In terms of technicals, 0.64 offers support and with momentum for AUD/USD becoming less negative, we think it is the beginning of a breakout higher.