Fed likely done raising rates, US to avoid recession – Reuters Poll

A poll from Reuters showed that out of 110 economists, 99 expected the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged at the September meeting.  According to the poll, 80% of respondents do not anticipate any further interest rate hikes by the Fed this year. 

A majority of the economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates at least once next year, by the end of the second quarter.

The probability of the US economy falling into a recession has decreased to 40%, after being above 50% since September 2022.

Market reaction:

The US Dollar weakened modestly after the poll, trimming its earlier gains. US stocks moved modestly higher, although they still held significant losses. The price of WTI crude oil rebounded back above $80.00, while the price of Gold edged higher towards $1,895.