Real yields to ease lower at some stage, supporting XAU/USD – OCBC

Gold prices have turned downward. Economists at OCBC analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Gold prices can outperform at end of Fed tightening cycle

We maintain our constructive outlook on Gold prices. 

Near term, rates staying ‘high for longer’ and higher real yields could still weigh on Gold prices until a Fed pivot comes into sight. To put in perspective, the Fed tightening cycle is likely to have ended. Historically, Gold prices can outperform at end of Fed tightening cycle. 

While opportunity cost of holding Gold has risen, we should expect real yields to ease lower at some stage. This would then be supportive of Gold prices. 

Looking on, we keep a look out on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium (24-26 Aug) for any hints from Fed on earlier policy shifts.