Oscar Valdez Vs. Emanuel Navarrete: Odds, Records, Prediction

Oscar Valdez grew up watching Erik Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera smacking each other (and plenty of others) around the ring en route to their eventual Hall of Fame inductions. They also had one of the greatest rivalries of the past few decades, and against Emanuel Navarrete on Saturday, Valdez is looking to mirror their accomplishments and the excitement they provided. Here’s everything you need to know about Oscar Valdez vs. Emanuel Navarrete, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Morales and Barrera fought three times (in 2000, 2002 and 2004). The first and the last showdowns were the Ring Magazine Fights of the Year. Vazquez wants his own moment to shine against a lethal opponent like Navarrete, and he also wants to take the junior lightweight title currently owned by his opponent.

“Those two fighters inspired me to be the fighter that I am today. To leave something similar in history would mean the world to me,” said Valdez, a former two-division world titlist. “I’m more motivated for this fight than any other fight I’ve been in. People are excited about this fight. Everywhere I go, I get the same question: ‘When are you going to fight Vaquero [Navarette]?’ And that’s because we all know that a war is coming.”

It seems that the styles between Valdez and Navarrete should clash in a complimentary way. Some boxing observers are expecting a can’t-miss fight, and others believe that this has the makings of the best showdown of 2023.

Count Navarette as a believer.

“People know that I throw a lot of punches and that I’m always in attractive fights,” he said. “Now, with Valdez, I believe it will be twice as spectacular. Valdez is a fighter who doesn’t hold back. We always see him moving forward and throwing punches.

“He says he’s going to knock my head off, but let’s see whose head comes off first. Let’s see what Valdez has to offer, and let’s see how much he can endure and how much I can endure, too.”

Though the buildup for Valdez-Navarrete has been overshadowed by Terrence Crawford’s destruction of Errol Spence and Naoya Inoue’s stoppage of Stephen Fulton, Saturday night’s fight should be more competitive than either of them. It could end up being 2023’s Fight of the Year.

Here’s more info on the Oscar Valdez vs. Emanuel Navarrete showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Oscar Valdez vs. Emanuel Navarrete odds

Valdez, at -165, is a small betting favorite (you’d need to wager $165 to win $100), while Navarrete is the +125 underdog (win $125 on a $100 bet). While some observers believe this is a 50-50 fight, I think it’s more 60-40 in favor of Valdez, meaning his money line probably doesn’t hold enough value for me. Instead, I’d go with Valdez by stoppage at +350. If I were going for Navarrete, I’d be more apt to grab him to win by decision at +300.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Valdez to beat Navarrete at -165, Anthony Joshua to stop Robert Helenius at -400, and Gary Antuanne Russell to stop Kent Cruz at -350. If all those hit, you’d earn a $158 profit on a $100 wager. Honestly, though, that might not be worth it.

Oscar Valdez vs. Emanuel Navarrete records

Valdez’s career has been a little up and down, but it’s certainly been more up than down. His only defeat came in a wide loss vs. Shakur Stevenson in 2022, and he hasn’t always put out consistent performances in his victories. But Valdez (31-1, 23 KOs) also had big moments in wins against Miguel Berchelt, Robson Conceicao and Scott Quigg. Valdez isn’t on the same level as Stevenson, but he’s still world class.

Navarrete (37-1, 33 KOs) is a fun fighter to watch, and he had great success at 126 pounds. But I wonder if he’ll be as effective at 130 pounds. In his first junior lightweight appearance in February, he got knocked down by Liam Wilson before eventually stopping him in the ninth to win the title. It’s safe to say Valdez is levels better than Wilson. Still, Navarrete has a pair of wins against a prime Isaac Dogbae, and though his resume isn’t as strong as Valdez’s, he’s still a dangerous fighter.

Oscar Valdez vs. Emanuel Navarrete prediction

Valdez has faced better competition than Navarrete has during their careers, and he’s been a full-fledged 130-pounder since 2019. Expect Navarrete to be aggressive, and he could perhaps take a lead on the scorecards through the first half of the fight. But I like Valdez’s power to wear down Navarrete, and I think he’ll have enough to score the late stoppage. Say, Valdez by TKO in the 10^th round.