All Pipelines Lead To Rome

Italy is vying to become the natural gas hub of Europe, taking in pipelines and tankers at the centre of the Mediterranean. This may be just what Algeria needs as relations with Spain sour; simultaneously, Russia is ceasing to be Europe’s leading energy provider.

After war in Ukraine and worsening relations with Spain, Algeria’s energy industry may be in a similar or even better strategic position. If infrastructure projects are completed, exports may be able to reach Central and Eastern Europe via Italy and take over the market once dominated by Russia.

Sanctions on the Russian economy are taking out the largest sole provider of natural gas into Europe. Across just 170 miles of sea, Algeria is well-placed to step in. Even if the Eastern Mediterranean soil and Libya have a great potential for fossil fuel production, they are torn by a conflict.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has recently declared her intention to turn her country into the energy hub of Europe. At the centre of the Mediterranean, Italy has built extensive infrastructure to import fossil fuels and, more recently, to export them to the rest of Europe. In late January of this year, Meloni visited President Abdelmajid Tebboune in Algiers to expand the partnership between the two countries.

Until the war in Ukraine, Russia was the largest source of gas for Italy; a pipeline brought it straight into the wealthier northern region of the country. In 2021, Russia was the largest importer of natural gas with a 29.2% share. For 2022, however, Algeria rose to take its place with a 34.3% share, while Russia’s fell to 16%. Imports from Azerbaijan (14.8%) and the North Sea (10.3%) are also noteworthy.

Italian multinational energy company Eni is a key actor in shaping Rome’s ambitions. It is one of the world’s major seven oil companies. The Italian government has a 30% share. It mostly has experience dealing with Middle Eastern and African oil-producing countries. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Italy has gone on a spree of meetings with African fossil fuel producers to secure deals, from Algeria to Angola to Mozambique.

The most ambitious project is the Trans-Saharan Pipeline, which could take gas from southern Nigeria all the way to Algeria and eventually northern Italy. This ambitious plan will be hard to put into action, especially after the military coup in Niger and renewed tensions. This is on top of insecurity and the presence of armed groups across the Sahel region. The benefits from a direct stream of gas covering such a distance could still bring many benefits, by reducing transport costs and timings; the sea route is also not without risk, as the Gulf of Guinea is an important piracy hub.

Italy has taken an active role in Libya’s second civil war (2014-present) in great part due to Eni’s presence in the country. Immersed in a complicated web of alliances and discreet operations, Rome is on the side of the Tripoli-based government, which is also backed by Turkey, Algeria and others, to varying degrees. Their enemy is the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army, likewise with disparate levels of support from Russia, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE
UAE
, among others.