A Power Three Emerges Between Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC

Effective the 2024 college football season, the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC will combine for 50 schools in 30 states and four time zones. The number of schools could grow depending on what happens with four Pac-12 institutions left standing (Wobbling?) following a mass exodus from the conference. Schools from other conferences could also be invited to come on board.

The Big Ten, which reached its current 14-team structure with the addition of Maryland and Rutgers in 2014, will add four schools next year: Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington. An 18-member conference stretching from New Brunswick, N.J. to Seattle – it’s a little more than a 2,400-mile flight from Newark Liberty International to Seattle-Tacoma International – would be the nation’s largest. For now.

The Big 12 expanded to 14 schools this year with the addition of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. Next year, the league loses Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC while adding Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah to become a 16-team conference. The SEC expands to 16 schools with the addition of the Sooners and Longhorns.

While more movement involving these conferences could be in store, it is becoming clear that a Power Three, if you will, of super conferences is forming. Not that this should be a surprise. After all, spiraling broadcast rights deals and conference realignment in recent years has led many observers to project a college football landscape dominated by a super conference or multiple such conferences.

The ACC? While the league may expand from its current 14 teams — commissioner Jim Phillips noted at the conference’s media days last month it has “spent considerable time” exploring expansion – and at some point head in the direction of becoming a super conference, the fact many schools have found new homes has left very little meat on the bone with respect to institutions that would make any kind of a difference beyond simply expanding its membership. More importantly, the ACC needs to do what it can to maintain its current membership, especially after shots were fired from Tallahassee.

The movement that has taken place makes it easy to vision Florida State joining rival Florida in the SEC, or moving to a Big Ten that may not be done expanding. Also, Clemson finding a home in another conference. However, a media rights deal that runs through 2036 and a $120 million exit fee make leaving the ACC anything but easy.

That brings us to Notre Dame. The school has a partnership with the ACC (and is a member of the conference in all sports but football and hockey) and a broadcast deal with NBC that comes to an end following the 2025 season. Obviously, Notre Dame is an enormous piece of the college football puzzle. It also places tremendous value on its independence. There is nothing to signal that will change. At least not yet. That said, Irish eyes, and every other pair of eyes, will be focused on South Bend no matter what developments take place with the ACC, including perhaps the Irish becoming a full-fledged member at some point and with the league becoming a fourth super conference.

The conference that has taken the biggest hit, of course, is the Pac-12. A league born as the Pacific Coast Conference in 1915, and which assumed its 12-team structure with the additions of Colorado and Utah in 2011, is left with all of four schools: Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State. Will each be absorbed by the Mountain West, or are Stanford and Cal headed to the Big Ten? Will Oregon State and Washington State become members of the Big 12?

Regardless of where the four remaining Pac-12 schools end up, the Football Bowl Subdivision will have a drastically different appearance next year. A Pac-12 that ceases to exist would reduce the FBS to nine conferences.

At this rate, is not difficult to vision a Power Three or Power Four of super conferences joining forces at some point in having their own playoff and national championship game after the current College Football Playoff contract expires following the 2025 season. Why would they want to share any pot with non-super conferences they will have left far behind?

Other conferences can continue to go about their business, even form their own governing body. Either way, they would be second-class citizens even beyond the chasm that currently exists between the haves and have nots. Any such divorce within the FBS would simply reflect the reality of a college football structure that has been traveling down the super conference path.

Of course, there is much that has yet to play out and other issues to be dealt with, such as what the emergence of super conferences and the loss of the Pac-12 as we knew it does to bowl tie-ins and the larger picture of the bowl season itself. Indeed, college football is changing right before our eyes with more change to come.