NZD/USD oscillates in a narrow range below the 0.6100 mark, US inflation eyed

• NZD/USD consolidates in a narrow trading band through the early Asian session on Monday.
• The US wage inflation and employment data showed mixed results on Friday.
• The Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to maintain tightening monetary policy far beyond 2024.
• The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July will be the key event to watch this week.

The NZD/USD pair oscillates in a narrow range below the 0.6100 mark during the early Asian session on Monday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of USD against six other major currencies, faces some follow-through selling and currently trades near 102.05.

The US Dollar fell following the mixed employment data on Friday. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 187,000 in July, weaker than the market expectation of 200,000. The June figures were revised lower to 185,000, the lowest reading since December 2020.

Additionally, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6%, while annual wage inflation, as measured by changes in Average Hourly Earnings, came in at 4.4%, higher than the market estimation of 4.2%. Finally, the Labour Force Participation remained unchanged at 62.6%.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic told Bloomberg on Friday that the central bank is likely to maintain tightening monetary policy far beyond 2024. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point (bps) hike in September remains steady, but the odds of a hike in November have increased slightly to approximately 30%.

On the Kiwi front, no top-tier economic data was released on Friday. However, Statistics New Zealand reported on Wednesday that the New Zealand Unemployment Rate for Q2 came in at 3.6%, above the consensus of 3.5% and 3.4% prior. Employment Change QoQ rose 1.0%, better than expected at 0.5% and 0.8% previously.

Looking ahead, market participants will watch the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which is due on Thursday. Market expectations anticipate a 0.2% monthly increase. Also, the US Produce Price Index (PPI) will be released on Friday. The inflation data could significantly impact the US Dollar’s dynamic and give the NZD/USD pair a clear direction.