WTI consolidates gains above the $78.70 mark amid the hope of a China stimulus plan

• WTI consolidates its recent gains around the $78.80 mark.
• Supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, hopes for Chinese stimulus measures lift WTI prices.
• Further rate hikes, the economic slowdown in the Eurozone might cap the upside for WTI.
• Oil traders will watch the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday.

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around the $78.80 mark so far this Tuesday. WTI consolidates its recent gains after hitting the highest level since April 24, backed by signs of a tighter oil market, data, and the hope for China’s stimulus plan. 

Several factors have contributed to WTI’s recent gains. WTI has edged higher for four consecutive weeks, with supplies projected to tighten due to curbs by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia, known as OPEC+.

About the data, Baker Hughes reported that the number of oil rigs in the United States fell by seven last week, the most since the beginning of June. The current number of active oil rigs in the United States fell to 530, the lowest since March 2022. The Baker Hughes rig count data exacerbates supply-side worries and contributes to crude oil price increases.

Additionally, China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, signaled additional support for the real estate sector and a series of measures to stimulate domestic consumption amid a sluggish post-COVID recovery. This, in turn, supports further upside in the WTI price.

On the other hand, the upside for WTI might be limited as market participants await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday. It is widely anticipated that the Fed will raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 5.25–5.50%. It’s worth noting that higher interest rates raise borrowing costs, which can slow the economy and diminish oil demand. 

On the Euro front, the Eurozone manufacturing sector’s woes worsened in July. The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) decreased to 42.7, below market expectations of 43.5 and June’s reading of 43.4. The index reached its lowest level in 38 months. The data dampens demand for WTI.

Oil traders will keep an eye on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. This event could significantly impact the USD-denominated WTI price. Apart from this, traders will take cues from US CB Consumer Confidence, Advance GDP QoQ, and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index MoM later this week.