Hurricane Don Fizzles—But Another Tropical System Could Bear Watching

Topline

What was Hurricane Don, the first Atlantic hurricane so far this year, weakened into a tropical storm Sunday as it fizzled out over a remote section of the North Atlantic, though a second system located in the tropical Atlantic could strengthen into a tropical storm as it pushes into the Caribbean Sea.

Forecasters are monitoring a storm in the Atlantic that has a chance of strengthening into a … [+] tropical depression.

Getty Images

Key Facts

Don’s stint as the season’s first hurricane was short lived, weakening as it entered cooler waters more than 300 miles southeast of Newfoundland, after strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday, with maximum sustained winds peaking at 75 mph—just breaching the 74 mph threshold required to reach hurricane status.

As of Sunday afternoon, Don’s sustained winds dropped to 60 mph, and is projected to continue to weaken as it slowly drifts northeast through Monday evening, losing tropical characteristics by Monday.

The National Hurricane Center is also tracking a system roughly 850 miles east of the Windward Islands with a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next 48 hours, but a 40% chance over the next seven days as it cruises westward into the Caribbean Sea.

Chances of development are down from 70% on Saturday, but the National Hurricane Center notes the “system could still become a tropical depression during the next few days.”

What To Watch For

The system is projected to move westward into the Caribbean Sea, though dry air and divergent winds in the atmosphere known as a wind shear could stunt its growth, though the system’s long-term track and intensity remain unclear. If it does intensify to tropical storm strength, it would become the fifth named storm of the 2023 season, taking on the name Emily.

Big Number

12-17. That’s how many named hurricanes and tropical storms the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projected in May for the 2023 hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through the end of November, with between five and nine of those developing into hurricanes and between one and four intensifying into 111-mph-plus major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

Key Background

Despite alarming predictions that last year’s hurricane season could be one of the worst ever—with predictions from Colorado State University indicating there could be as many as 19 named storms—the season got off to an eerily slow start. At this time last year, only three named storms had developed, including two in the first week of July that were followed up by a historic two-month lull. In late September, just past the peak of the hurricane season, Florida was pummeled with the state’s deadliest hurricane in nearly 90 years, when Hurricane Ian crossed over the Florida peninsula after making an initial landfall in Cuba. The death toll from Hurricane Ian is estimated at 149 over 19 counties, while coastal communities across the Florida Gulf Coast were devastated as mass flooding and high surf caused massive damage.

Surprising Fact

Tropical activity typically spikes beginning in August, ahead of hurricane season’s historical peak on September 10.