Vulnerable to a correction if inflation or Retail Sales come in below forecast – SocGen

Bullish momentum remained intact last week and carried GBP/USD over 1.32 for the first time since March 2022. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s outlook. 

Seasonality turns negative in August

The pair is technically most overbought since February 2020 and faces downside risk if UK CPI and/or Retail Sales surprise to the downside, or the Dollar rebounds. 

Below forecast inflation and Retail Sales would temper the hawkish repricing of the outlook for bank rate and cause front-end Gilt yields to take a step back. The OIS curve is discounting 43 bps next month and another 35 bps in September. 

Profit taking in GBP/USD would nudge EUR/GBP back over 0.86. 

Seasonality for the Pound turns resolutely negative in August.