Ripple: Is the LBRY verdict foreshadowing the future?

• The LBRY ruling might impact Ripple because of similarities in the cases.
• XRP did not seem affected but fell to zero on an exchange on 10 July.

The SEC’s case against Ripple [XRP], an enduring saga, is anticipated to conclude this year. Amidst an atmosphere of cautious optimism, a recent ruling concerning a separate project has potentially rattled the confidence of devout Ripple supporters.

How much are 1,10,100 XRPs worth today?

Similarities and differences in the Ripple and LBRY cases

On 11 July, the courts issued a significant ruling in a case involving the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and LBRY. The ruling, spanning 12 pages, was succinctly summarized by Jeremy Hogan in his recent post on the same day. Hogan provided a summary and explored its potential impact on the Ripple case. 

He highlighted the absence of a ruling on secondary sales, suggesting a similar scenario could unfold in the Ripple case. For such an outcome to transpire, the court must determine that the Fair Notice Defense lacked sufficient grounds to warrant a trial.

Additionally, the court would have to establish that past and present sales of XRP constitute investment contracts to grant injunctive relief. If such a ruling were to materialize, Hogan speculated that some exchanges might be unable to relist XRP.

He added, 

The injunctive relief would be a BIG problem for Ripple since it would enjoin sales from escrow. But it’s a problem with a possible solution – just a workaround that might interfere with Ripple’s business plans.
…
No ruling on secondary market sales is a “status quo” ruling.

— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) July 11, 2023

It’s important to note that these are speculative scenarios, as the charges against Ripple and LBRY, while bearing similarities, also possess notable differences. As a result, discussions surrounding the case’s outcome remain speculative.

How did XRP react?

Looking at XRP on the daily timeframe chart revealed sideways trading over the past few weeks. On 11 July, XRP concluded its trading session with a minor deficit of less than 1%, indicating a typical market fluctuation.

As of this writing, it was trading at approximately $0.47. It was experiencing small oscillations between gains and losses, both within the 1% range. 

Source: TradingView

Despite the recent sluggish price performance, XRP was positioned above its long Moving Average (blue line), which acted as a support level at around $0.45 and $0.41. However, it was trading below the short Moving Average (yellow line), which functioned as a resistance level at around $0.49.

Furthermore, an unusual occurrence was witnessed in XRP’s price on the Poloniex exchange on 10 July. On the daily timeframe chart, XRP briefly plummeted to $0 before swiftly rebounding and concluding the day at its normal price.

Although the exchange provided no official statement, this price crash is likely attributed to maintenance activities on the platform. As of this writing, XRP traded at the same price as observed on other exchanges.

Source: TradingView

Volume and market sentiment

Recent data from CoinMarketCap revealed a notable drop in volume for XRP over the past 24 hours. The data indicated that the volume had decreased by nearly 30%, reaching approximately 605 million as of this writing.

This decline in volume signified a decrease in the activity level surrounding this asset during that specific period.

Additionally, analyzing the funding rate statistics on CoinGlass, it became evident that positive sentiments continued to dominate despite the recent developments.

Realistic or not, here’s XRP’s market cap in BTC’s terms

As of this writing, the funding rate remained positive across most exchanges, although there was a visible decline. Nevertheless, traders remained optimistic and continued to place their bets on a potential price increase.

The coming weeks will be pivotal as Ripple prepares for the eventual ruling. However, one notable thing in this latest ruling was the need for more clarity, making developing a crypto regulatory framework more difficult.