Three College Pitchers Define New Era In Major League Baseball’s Draft

Louisiana State University right-handed pitcher Paul Skenes is a once in a decade talent who could be the first pick in Major League Baseball’s draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Physically impressive at 6-foot-6 and weighing 235 pounds, Skenes is being compared to the likes of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg as both were celebrated as elite college pitchers. Along with a triple-digit fastball, Skenes is also following in the footsteps of Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels as a two-way ball player. Besides Skenes, there are two other outstanding college pitchers whose names should also be called within the first 10 picks of the draft: right-handers Chase Dollander and Rhett Lowder. Each are a successful byproduct of a new era in college baseball and are now receiving an all-encompassing education on the economics and inexact science of Major League Baseball’s draft.

Thanks to good fortune in the inaugural draft lottery, the Pirates’ number one pick is accompanied by the highest assigned value in draft history at $9,721,000. According to Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline, the Pirates’ $16,185,700 signing bonus pool ranks third all-time behind the 2015 Houston Astros ($17,289,200) and the 2022 Baltimore Orioles ($16,933,000). Don’t be surprised if the Pirates proceed with caution given the risks associated with pitchers and draft Skenes’ extraordinarily talented college teammate, outfielder Dylan Crews, or even consider high school outfield prospects such as Max Clark and Walker Jenkins at a signing bonus below the assigned value.

A $10 million signing bonus might be on the forefront of the minds of Crews and Skenes but would surpass the assigned pick value by $279,000 for the Pirates. This is the second time since the bonus-pool era began in 2012 the Pirates have the first pick in the draft and sixth overall in franchise history according to Baseball-Reference. The last time the Pirates had the number one pick in the draft occurred in 2021 when they selected catcher Henry Davis out of the University of Louisville. According to Callis, the assigned value for the first pick was $8,415,300 but Davis signed for $6,500,000. The Pirates had a signing bonus pool for the first 10 rounds of $14,394,000 and spent $15,938,700 which included draft picks from rounds 11-20.

If Skenes is available for the Washington Nationals who are in possession of the second pick in the draft, he could secure a $9 million signing bonus. At an assigned pick value of $8,998,500, the Nationals have a $14,502,400 signing bonus pool to be spent on ball players in the first 10 rounds according to Callis. This is the highest pick for the Nationals in the bonus-pool era after selecting outfielder Elijah Green fifth overall last year with a $6.5 million signing bonus according to Baseball-Reference.

The largest signing bonus ever given to a ball player in the draft occurred in 2020 when Spencer Torkelson received $8,416,300 from the Detroit Tigers out of Arizona State University according to Callis. At a minimum, Skenes could receive the largest signing bonus for a pitcher in draft history based on assigned values for the first and second picks of the draft. In 2021, right-handed pitcher Jack Leiter from Vanderbilt University received a $7,922,000 signing bonus as the second pick in the draft by the Texas Rangers, the largest for a pitcher in the bonus-pool era. The Pirates gave Cole an $8 million signing bonus as the first pick in the 2011 draft out of the University of California, Los Angeles, the largest for a pitcher in draft history.

While they are not projected to be selected within the first five picks, Dollander and Lowder have been linked to multiple ball clubs who will be selecting sixth through tenth in the draft. Besides the potential of at least a $5 million signing bonus for both based on assigned values, they also share similar height and weight measurements at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds. Dollander is the ninth ranked prospect while Lowder is the sixth according to MLB Pipeline.

Dollander, a product of the University of Tennessee, possesses a high velocity fastball that is complemented by a sharp slider. While some are projecting Dollander to be a top of the rotation starting pitcher, inconsistencies with his delivery, control, and command have been identified as areas of improvement. A highly touted prospect, Dollander’s potential is tantalizing as evident in 120 strikeouts over 89 innings pitched during his junior season in Knoxville.

Lowder’s success at Wake Forest University begins with back-to-back Atlantic Coast Conference Pitcher of the Year Awards. As the Demon Deacons made their first College World Series appearance since 1955, Lowder struck out 143 batters over 120.1 innings pitched and set the single-season strikeout record in school history. A command and control pitcher as evident by an impressive changeup, Lowder is in a different category than Skenes when it comes to physicality and fastball velocity. As Skenes presently embodies the characteristics of a bona fide ace on a major league ball club, Lowder’s work ethic and determination will push him forward as he currently projects as a middle of the rotation starting pitcher. He just recently won the 2022-2023 Anthony J. McKevlin Award, the Atlantic Coast Conference’s top male athlete.

Right-handed pitchers Chase Dollander, Rhett Lowder, and Paul Skenes represent far more than potential top 10 picks in Major League Baseball’s draft. They are part of a new era in college baseball where analytics, biomechanics, medicine, and science are incorporated into performance. They will be handsomely rewarded with multi-million dollar signing bonuses as pitching mounds have become laboratories for learning. As their names are presently intertwined with conversations regarding draft position, signing bonus pools, and assigned values, look beyond the business of baseball and you will see elite college pitching talent equipped with unparalleled knowledge.