Potential topping process on a break below 1.0797 for a move back to 1.0634/15 – Credit Suisse

EUR/USD remains capped at the 78.6% retracement of the April/May fall at 1.0998 as looked for, but with key support from the uptrend from last September still holding, now seen at 1.0797. Economists at Credit Suisse analyze the pair’s technical outlook.

EUR/USD may still be in the early stages of a topping process

A break below 1.0797 would be seen to increase the risk we are seeing a potential topping process for a move back to the May low and 200-DMA at 1.0634/15. With further major support seen not far below at the channel bottom at 1.0572, ahead of 38.2% retracement of the 2022/2023 rally and March low at 1.0516/01 we would expect a floor to be found here for now. 

A close below 1.0501 remains seen needed to see an important top established, with support then seen initially at 1.0317.

A close above 1.0998 though can clear the way for strength back to the YTD high at 1.1093/97, potentially the channel top at 1.1133, but with a fresh cap expected to be found here.