Well-known crypto analyst TechDev recently shared an updated forecast for Bitcoin, predicting a possible surge. He compared Bitcoin’s current position to the initial stages of a macro impulse wave, which began in 2019.
The Pitfall of the “Cycle” Theory
According to TechDev, many crypto analysts were misguided in their 2021 predictions due to an overemphasis on the four-year “cycle” theory. This theory proposed that Bitcoin would follow a four-year pattern of peak prices. As a result of this flawed approach, these analysts are now skeptical of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs for years to come.
Contrary to popular belief, TechDev suggests that if there is a cycle, it’s more influenced by liquidity rather than the halving events. He argues we may be at the start of a parabolic rise, akin to the one Bitcoin experienced in late 2015 and 2016.
Crypto markets, including Bitcoin, resist traditional predictive models due to their high volatility and complex nature. TechDev emphasizes the importance of being open to unexpected trends.
As the crypto market continues its unpredictable moves, he urges analysts and investors to evolve their strategies beyond the conventional four-year cycle narrative. The expectation of a big dip for latecomers might not materialize, mirroring situations in the aforementioned 2015/2016.
Understanding Market Movements
TechDev warns against blindly following a specific cycle theory, emphasizing that the market is complex and not always straightforward. He learned from the past two years that historical trends in crypto don’t exactly repeat, but they often echo across various assets. Therefore, Bitcoin, as a speculative asset, isn’t an exception and is influenced by various market forces.
Thus, looking at the broader picture instead of focusing on a single theory could be the key to understanding Bitcoin’s future. Following this approach, TechDev projects a significant surge for Bitcoin this month, recalling the situation similar to November 2020.
At the time of writing this article, Bitcoin is worth $30,611 and has been up by 0.29% in the past twenty-four hours.
Source: https://coinpedia.org/bitcoin/btc-price-forecastcrypto-analyst-predicts-bitcoins-explosive-july-surge/