Why Bulls Should Not Offer Nikola Vučević Over $20 Million Per Year

The Chicago Bulls are hoping to bring back free agent center Nikola Vučević, and are allegedly prepared to offer between $55 – 65 million over three years to do so, according to Zach Lowe of ESPN.

Vučević did perform at a high level this season, netting 17.6 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game, while playing all 82 regular season games.

However, it’s fair to wonder who exactly the Bulls are negotiating against.

Vučević will turn 33 right at the start of the season, and a deal that pays him well over $20 million per year through age 35 isn’t exactly considered attractive to most teams.

The teams with cap space this summer are mostly teams who are in the process of rebuilding – like the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets – which makes Vučević of little interest to them due to his age.

In fact, one might argue that Vučević’s market shouldn’t be more than slightly higher than the Non-Tax MLE, estimated to land at roughly $12.5 million this year. At that price range, he will have suitors. If the Bulls wish to keep him, outbidding teams over the cap, but under the tax, by a million or so should put them in the room.

The Bulls are obviously keen on retaining the veteran center, especially considering what they gave up for him back in 2021. Losing Vučević for nothing, after relinquishing Wendell Carter Jr, the 8th pick in the 2021 draft, and the 11th pick in this year’s draft – Franz Wagner and Jett Howard respectively – would be borderline malpractice.

But so would paying Vučević a number that’s a solid $10 million more per year than what most teams would be willing to offer. Doubling down on mistakes has been Chicago’s motive for years now, so it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise if they re-sign the center to the aforementioned deal, even if that would make it exceedingly difficult to move off of him later.

While Vučević is productive, the center position has seen a dramatic decrease in compensation in recent years. The Bulls themselves even benefitted from that when they signed former All-Star center Andre Drummond last summer for a little over $3 million.

As such, it makes little sense for the Bulls to not properly realize what constitutes real value for Vučević when factoring in elements such as age, and market tendencies.

One argument for Vučević is that he does offer shooting range, which pumps up his value compared to Drummond. That said he’s not a sharpshooter, having connected on just 33.2% on his last 678 attempts from deep. Big men aren’t necessarily asked to emulate efficiency like most guards, but Vučević’s shooting is far from reliable.

Vučević himself might not wish to return to the Bulls unless he’s properly compensated, but if the market tells him, and his agency, that the money he’s seeking simply isn’t out there, he’ll have little choice but to take the best deal, assuming he’s primarily financially driven.

Frankly, if the Bulls are considering paying Vučević anywhere near $20 million per year, they’d be wildly misreading the market. And should another team – unexpectedly – be willing to offer him a similar deal, Chicago should let them make that mistake.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.